Bayesian Analysis of the Impact of Rainfall Data Product on Simulated Slope Failure for North Carolina Locations

In the past decades, many different approaches have been developed in the literature to quantify the load-carrying capacity and geotechnical stability (or the factor of safety, Fs) of variably saturated hillslopes. Much of this work has focused on a deterministic characterization of hillslope stability. Yet, simulated Fs values are subject to considerable uncertainty due to our inability to characterize accurately the soil mantles properties (hydraulic, geotechnical, and geomorphologic) and spatiotemporal variability of the moisture content of the hillslope interior. This is particularly true at larger spatial scales. Thus, uncertainty-incorporating analyses of physically based models of rain-induced landslides are rare in the literature. Such landslide modeling is typically conducted at the hillslope scale using gauge-based rainfall forcing data with rather poor spatiotemporal coverage. For regional landslide modeling, the specific advantages and/or disadvantages of gauge-only, radar-merged and satellite-based rainfall products are not clearly established. Here, we compare and evaluate the performance of the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability analysis (TRIGRS) model for three different rainfall products using 112 observed landslides in the period between 2004 and 2011 from the North Carolina Geological Survey database. Our study includes the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis Version 7 (TMPA V7), the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) analysis, and the reference truth Stage IV precipitation. TRIGRS model performance was rather inferior with the use of literature values of the geotechnical parameters and soil hydraulic properties from ROSETTA using soil textural and bulk density data from SSURGO (Soil Survey Geographic database). The performance of TRIGRS improved considerably after Bayesian estimation of the parameters with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm using Stage IV precipitation data. Hereto, we use a likelihood function that combines binary slope failure information from landslide event and null periods using multivariate frequency distribution-based metrics such as the false discovery and false omission rates. Our results demonstrate that the Stage IV-inferred TRIGRS parameter distributions generalize well to TMPA and NLDAS-2 precipitation data, particularly at sites with considerably larger TMPA and NLDAS-2 rainfall amounts during landslide events than null periods. TRIGRS model performance is then rather similar for all three rainfall products. At higher elevations, however, the TMPA and NLDAS-2 precipitation volumes are insufficient and their performance with the Stage IV-derived parameter distributions indicates their inability to accurately characterize hillslope stability

An Environmental Language Approach for Increasing Behavior of Retarded Children

Immediate gains in four areas of language behavior of nine moderately retarded children, achieved through a systematic summer-camp-type activity program, remained significant one year later, report these authors

Signal Peptide-Selection of cDNA Cloned Directly from the Esophageal Gland Cells of the Soybean Cyst Nematode Heterodera glycines

Secretions from the esophageal gland cells of plantparasitic nematodes play critical roles in the nematodeparasitic cycle. A novel method to isolate cDNA encoding putative nematode secretory proteins was developed that utilizes mRNA for reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction derived from microaspiration of the esophageal gland cell contents of parasitic stages of the soybean cyst nematode Heterodera glycines. The resulting H. glycines gland cell cDNA was cloned into the pRK18 vector, and plasmid DNA was transformed into a mutated yeast host for specific selection of cDNA inserts that encode proteins with functional signal peptides. Of the 223 cDNA clones recovered from selection in yeast, 97% of the clones encoded a predicted signal peptide. Fourteen unique cDNA clones hybridized to genomic DNA of H. glycines on Southern blots and, among them, nine cDNA clones encoded putative extracellular proteins, as predicted by PSORT II computer analysis. Four cDNA clones hybridized to transcripts within the dorsal esophageal gland cell of parasitic stages of H. glycines, and in situ hybridization within H. glycines was not detected for eight cDNA clones. The protocol provides a direct means to isolate potential plant-parasitic nematode esophageal gland secretory protein genes

The "Ram Effect": A "Non-Classical" Mechanism for Inducing LH Surges in Sheep

During spring sheep do not normally ovulate but exposure to a ram can induce ovulation. In some ewes an LH surge is induced immediately after exposure to a ram thus raising questions about the control of this precocious LH surge. Our first aim was to determine the plasma concentrations of oestradiol (E2) E2 in anoestrous ewes before and after the "ram effect" in ewes that had a "precocious" LH surge (starting within 6 hours), a "normal" surge (between 6 and 28h) and "late» surge (not detected by 56h). In another experiment we tested if a small increase in circulating E2 could induce an LH surge in anoestrus ewes. The concentration of E2 significantly was not different at the time of ram introduction among ewes with the three types of LH surge. "Precocious" LH surges were not preceded by a large increase in E2 unlike "normal" surges and small elevations of circulating E2 alone were unable to induce LH surges. These results show that the "precocious" LH surge was not the result of E2 positive feedback. Our second aim was to test if noradrenaline (NA) is involved in the LH response to the "ram effect". Using double labelling for Fos and tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) we showed that exposure of anoestrous ewes to a ram induced a higher density of cells positive for both in the A1 nucleus and the Locus Coeruleus complex compared to unstimulated controls. Finally, the administration by retrodialysis into the preoptic area, of NA increased the proportion of ewes with an LH response to ram odor whereas treatment with the α1 antagonist Prazosin decreased the LH pulse frequency and amplitude induced by a sexually active ram. Collectively these results suggest that in anoestrous ewes NA is involved in ram-induced LH secretion as observed in other induced ovulators

The "ram effect": new insights into neural modulation of the gonadotropic axis by male odors and socio-sexual interactions

Reproduction in mammals is controlled by the hypothalamo-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis under the influence of external and internal factors such as photoperiod, stress, nutrition, and social interactions. Sheep are seasonal breeders and stop mating when day length is increasing (anestrus). However, interactions with a sexually active ram during this period can override the steroid negative feedback responsible for the anoestrus state, stimulate LH secretion and eventually reinstate cyclicity. This is known as the ram effect and research into the mechanisms underlying it is shedding new light on HPG axis regulation. The first step in the ram effect is increased LH pulsatile secretion in anestrus ewes exposed to a sexually active male or only to its fleece, the latter finding indicating a pheromone-like effect. Estradiol secretion increases in all ewes and this eventually induces a LH surge and ovulation, just as during the breeding season. An exception is a minority of ewes that exhibit a precocious LH surge (within 4h) with no prior increase in estradiol. The main olfactory system and the cortical nucleus of the amygdala are critical brain structures in mediating the ram effect since it is blocked by their inactivation. Sexual experience is also important since activation (increased c-fos expression) in these and other regions is greatly reduced in sexually naïve ewes. In adult ewes kisspeptin neurons in both arcuate and preoptic regions and some preoptic GnRH neurons are activated 2h after exposure to a ram. Exposure to rams also activates noradrenergic neurons in the locus coeruleus and A1 nucleus and increased noradrenalin release occurs in the posterior preoptic area. Pharmacological modulation of this system modifies LH secretion in response to the male or his odor. Together these results show that the ram effect can be a fruitful model to promote both a better understanding of the neural and hormonal regulation of the HPG axis in general and also the spe

Acute onset and remission of obsessions and compulsions following medical illnesses and stress

Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD) is generally chronic. Episodic OCD with complete remission has been rarely reported. Two cases of brief, episodic obsessions and compulsions that appeared for the first time following psychological stress and in the context of medical illness are reported. The possibility of brief episodes of OCD precipitated by stress is illustrated. Exploration of this phenomenon may help us learn more about OCD in general. Depression and Anxiety 12:238–240, 2000. © 2000 Wiley-Liss, Inc.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/35219/1/8_ftp.pd